So, we have a disaster scenario, but those things don't happen here do they?

Let's look at some research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - This body was established in 1998, involving scientists and climate modellers to track and predict trends in the worlds climate.

You've probably heard of the Greenhouse Effect. Very briefly this is when gases like water vapour and carbon dioxide trap the suns heat and prevent it escaping back into space. Without some of these gases the planet would be very much colder and we wouldn't be here but as a result of our activities in burning fossil fuels when we drive our cars or aeroplanes or operate factories for example the levels of these gases in the atmosphere are increasing and the planet gets hotter causing things like the icecaps to melt and the sea level to rise.

1998 was the warmest year so far recorded
Since 1981 we had the 10 warmest years recorded, 6 of these after 1990

In the 1960s there were 16 climate related disasters recorded
In the 1990s 70
Between 2000 - 2020, 245 are predicted

The world is now 0.6C warmer than in pre-industrial times. Global temperatures have been rising at a rate of 0.2C/decade. This doesn't seem like much but because most of the Earth is covered in deep water there is a time lag in its heating up. The temperature changes we see now are a result of CO2 emissions in the 1950s. This means that if we halted all CO2 emissions now temperatures would still continue to rise for a while.

The IPCC predicts that by2080 CO2 levels will double and global temperatures will rise by 2.5C (During the last ice-age the world was only 5C colder than today

Relating to sea level the IPCC think that sea- levels could rise by 50cm - 1m over the next 100yrs. Of course if part of the Antarctic ice sheet fell off we could be looking at rises of 6m. Here's what Cork might look like after a 5m rise

This scenario more accurately could be called Climate Chaos, as a net gain in temperature would be experienced regionally as drastic and unpredictable changes in weather, such as flooding, drought, unseasonable freezes, hurricanes etc. In fact we on the western edge of Europe may find it getting colder if, as predicted, the Gulf Stream switches off. To prevent it the IPCC recommend an initial cut of 60% in greenhouse gas followed by an 80 or 90% drop. The Kyoto Protocol have committed to a 5.2% drop and the US have refused to ratify even this !!?

Some people, often with shares in large oil companies, claim that there isn't enough proof that climate change is caused by humans, that it is simply a natural process. On the other hand some people claim that the IPCC predictions don't go far enough.

Perhaps it is a moot point, the world has gone through radical climate shifts before and humanity has contrived to find ways to survive, but the individuals, communities and societies that did survive were the ones that were able to adapt quickly and effectively to changing circumstances. In fact we have spent most of our history in PRECARITY. It is only with the industrial revolution, sparked off by the harnessing of the vast energies contained in fossil fuels that some of us have been able to create this illusion of security. An illusion that looks to be in the process of collapsing as the pigeons of climate chaos fly home to roost. The oil is running out too and that is another equally scary story.

Perhaps we should just accept this and get on with the job of creating tools and systems to enable us to thrive and survive in conditions of drastic change. Perhaps we need a bit of danger and uncertainty in our lives to get us to stop worrying about the minor details and focus on what it truly means to be alive on the Earth at this time.

So what can we do now? ...read more